Question posted on December 19, 2013; 1 response 
In a chapter on regression to the mean (Thinking Fast and Slow) Daniel Kahneman resorts to "luck" as an explanation for why one professional golfer shoots a lower score in a round than his/her rivals given that the talent pool... 
Probability 

Question posted on October 10, 2013; 1 response 
If the probability of death is 100%, and the probability of being alive tomorrow is uncertain, does that mean the probability of dying tomorrow is greater than the probability of being alive? If so, why am I so convinced that... 
Death, Probability 

Question posted on July 18, 2013; 1 response 
I'm going to ask a somewhat bizarre question concerning casuality, probability, and the nature of belief so bear with me thanks! Suppose a craps player goes to two casinos in Macau, the first one architecturally built according to feng shui... 
Probability 

Question posted on January 31, 2013; 1 response 
Recently, Nate Silver won acclaim by correctly predicting the electoral results for all fifty states. If one of Silver's predictions had failed, however, would that have shown that he was wrong? I mean, I take it that Silver's predictions amount... 
Probability 

Question posted on August 2, 2012; 1 response 
Is there such thing as coincidence? I mean is it possible that something happen without any purpose or significance?... 
Probability 

Question posted on May 24, 2012; 1 response 
Let's say there is some crime committed and that only 5% of similar crimes are committed by someone like Person A (based on demographics, personality type, previous criminal record, etc.). If the police later find evidence suggesting that Person A... 
Probability 

Question posted on May 3, 2012; 2 responses 
Suppose that you had two bags each with an infinite number of blue marbles. Suppose you also had another bag of infinity red marbles. If you mixed those three bags what are your odds of getting a red marble? Obviously... 
Probability 

Question posted on January 26, 2011; 1 response 
Hey there! My question is: is randomness an illusion or can everything theoretically be predicted? Let me use the coin toss analogy. At first, a coin toss appears totally random, but as we look deeper, we find... 
Probability 

Question posted on July 24, 2010; 1 response 
My question is in part about language and in part about the nature of causality.
I have noticed that some persons use the phrases "at random" or "by chance" in ways that make no sense to me. For instance, someone might... 
Probability 

Question posted on April 22, 2010; 4 responses 
Suppose I agree with theists that "God exists" is a necessary proposition, and so is either a tautology or contradiction. That seems to indicate that the probability of "God exists" is either 1 or 0. Suppose also that I don't... 
Probability, Religion 

Question posted on January 5, 2010; 1 response 
What makes conspiracy theories improbable? ... 
Probability 

Question posted on June 25, 2009; 1 response 
In the probability thread, multiple philosophers mention examples of zeroprobability events that aren't necessarily "impossible" (like flipping an infinite number of heads in a row). Arriving at a probability of zero in these instances relies on saying that 1/infinity =... 
Mathematics, Probability 

Question posted on January 11, 2009; 1 response 
Suppose that I know all the laws of physics and the position of all the atoms in the universe. I flip a coin. Obviously I will know with 100% certainty what the outcome will be.
Suppose I am a mere mortal,... 
Probability 

Question posted on January 2, 2009; 2 responses 
A friend posed a problem that according to him reveals an inconsistency in mathematics. There are two envelopes with money in them, and you are given one envelope. One envelope has twice the amount of money as the... 
Probability 

Question posted on November 20, 2008; 1 response 
What is defective about reasoning in the following way. Say I flip an ordinary coin and it lands heads 20 times in a row. Then I say: "Well, this combination of 20 flips is as likely as any other combination... 
Probability 

Question posted on September 11, 2008; 1 response 
In support of the argument to design, people often remark that the order seen in nature is "improbable" and so requires a special explanationi.e., a designer. But if order is seen throughout nature, in what sense is it improbable?... 
Probability, Religion 

Question posted on March 26, 2008; 1 response 
Derren Brown recently had a show in which he flipped ten heads in a row. He just flipped coins all day and waited for it to happen eventually. If I flip a fair coin, I should believe there's a 50%... 
Probability 

Question posted on March 22, 2008; 1 response 
Does it make sense to talk of "probability" with regard to existential claims? Consider the following propositions:
(1) Rolling snake eyes is improbable.
(2) The existence of Big Foot is improbable.
Though I can't quite finger the distinction, it seems to me that... 
Probability 

Question posted on February 4, 2008; 1 response 
I seen a question that went, "Can there be an event that is entirely random?" I put a little bit of thought into this and concluded that the "Big Bang" theory, about the fact that the singularity became the universe... 
Physics, Probability 

Question posted on January 24, 2008; 1 response 
Consider the following game that costs $2 to play: You roll a fair, sixsided die. You are awarded a $6 prize if, and only if, you roll a six; otherwise, you get nothing. Should you play the game? Well, considering... 
Probability, Rationality 
