In a chapter on regression to the mean (Thinking Fast and Slow) Daniel Kahneman resorts to "luck" as an explanation for why one professional golfer shoots a lower score in a round than his/her rivals given that the talent pool is reasonably even. While a "lucky" (or unlucky) bounce can impact one's score, I find luck as a concept a poor explanation for performance. What is the philosophical status of luck, and are there different flavors of luck depending upon the philosophy? Is luck to chance as evidence is to data?

If the probability of death is 100%, and the probability of being alive tomorrow is uncertain, does that mean the probability of dying tomorrow is greater than the probability of being alive? If so, why am I so convinced that planning for the future is a good thing? People seem to spend large amounts of time planning for their future lives, but shouldn't they be planning for their unquestionable death?

I'm going to ask a somewhat bizarre question concerning casuality, probability, and the nature of belief so bear with me thanks! Suppose a craps player goes to two casinos in Macau, the first one architecturally built according to feng shui principles and a second one not according to feng shui principles. Feng shui is an ancient Chinese system of geomancy that modern psychologists tend to discredit. This craps player personally believes in feng shui himself but only to a moderate extent. He frequents both casinos equally and bets exactly the same way every time but he usually wins at the first casino and usually loses at the second casino. 1) Does this prove that feng shui is "real," at least for him? 2) Pragmatically, even if feng shui isn't "real" or cannot be proven to be real, isn't it advisable for him to stop going to the second casino? 3) Can psychology really influence probability involving human decisions?

Recently, Nate Silver won acclaim by correctly predicting the electoral results for all fifty states. If one of Silver's predictions had failed, however, would that have shown that he was wrong? I mean, I take it that Silver's predictions amount to assignments of probability to different outcomes. Suppose that I claim that an ordinary coin has a 50% chance of landing head or tails. If a trial is then run in which the coin lands tails three times in a row, we wouldn't take this to mean that I was wrong. Along similar lines, then, would it not have been possible for literally all of Silver's predictions to have failed and yet still be correct?

Is there such thing as coincidence? I mean is it possible that something happen without any purpose or significance?

Let's say there is some crime committed and that only 5% of similar crimes are committed by someone like Person A (based on demographics, personality type, previous criminal record, etc.). If the police later find evidence suggesting that Person A is the perpetrator of a crime and that there is only a 10% chance that the evidence could exist if Person A is innocent, then does that mean there is a 90% chance that Person A is guilty? Or do we have to factor in the fact that there was only a 5% probability that A was guilty before the evidence was found? Thanks!

Suppose that you had two bags each with an infinite number of blue marbles. Suppose you also had another bag of infinity red marbles. If you mixed those three bags what are your odds of getting a red marble? Obviously this isn't a realistic experiment but is it 1 in 3 or 50%?

Hey there! My question is: is randomness an illusion or can everything theoretically be predicted? Let me use the coin toss analogy. At first, a coin toss appears totally random, but as we look deeper, we find that the "randomness" is simply a result of factors that we cannot perveive at first glance (ie. tossing force, distance from ground, air resistance etc). Suddenly the coin toss isn't random anymore. So is true randomness really out there or is all randomness just an illusion?

My question is in part about language and in part about the nature of causality. I have noticed that some persons use the phrases "at random" or "by chance" in ways that make no sense to me. For instance, someone might claim that a coin which is flipped lands heads up "by chance" or that complex weather phenomena occur "at random." When pressed on what this means, they usually respond that the coin landed heads up for no reason; it just as easily have been tails up. Surely this isn't true nor is it what they genuinely mean, is it? The side on which coins land is due to weight distribution, pressure, wind, and a handful of simple mechanical principles and weather phenomena are highly complex systems that operate by way of long causal chains, but neither of them happen without any reason at all. Do these phrases really just mean, "this outcome could not be predicted because I don't have the data?" Nothing really occurs *by way of chance*, but we simply look back on outcomes that couldn't be anticipated...

Suppose I agree with theists that "God exists" is a necessary proposition, and so is either a tautology or contradiction. That seems to indicate that the probability of "God exists" is either 1 or 0. Suppose also that I don't know which it is, but I find the evidential argument from evil convincing, and so rate the probability of "God exists" at, say, 0.2. But if the probability of "God exists" is either 1 or 0, then it can't be 0.2 - that would be like saying that "God exists" is a contingent proposition, which I've accepted it isn't. How then can I apply probabilistic reasoning to "God exists" at all? If I can, then how should I explain the apparent conflict?